Where is the «death of the American Koschei” located?
МОСКВА, 05 февраля 2022, Институт РУССТРАТ.
On January 26, 2022, the United States and NATO submitted their written responses to Russian security guarantee proposals. On December 15, 2021, Russia presented to the United States and the leadership of the North Atlantic Alliance the drafts of the Treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States of America on Security Guarantees and the Agreement on Security Measures for the Russian Federation and Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. In addition, these documents were published on the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation on December 17, 2021.
In assessing the written responses of the United States and NATO, we will rely on the highest level source. On January 28, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin commented on these documents in a telephone conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron. The corresponding official message was posted on the Kremlin’s website:
«The American and NATO responses did not take into account such fundamental concerns of Russia as the prevention of NATO expansion, the refusal to deploy strike weapons systems near the Russian borders, as well as the return of the military potential and infrastructure of the bloc in Europe to the position of 1997, when the Founding Act of Russia-NATO was signed.
The key question has also been ignored: how the United States and its allies intend to follow the principle of indivisibility of security enshrined in the basic documents of the OSCE and Russia–NATO, which stipulates that no one should strengthen their security at the expense of the security of other countries.»
The information about the telephone conversation between the leaders of Russia and France also says the following: «Vladimir Putin noted that the Russian side will carefully study the written responses received on January 26 from the United States and NATO to draft agreements on security guarantees, after which it will decide on its further actions.»
On the same day, January 28, 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov gave an interview to the radio stations “SPUTNIK”, «Echo of Moscow”, “Moskva Govorit” and “Komsomolskaya Pravda”.
During the interview, Sergey Lavrov told what international documents Russia’s position on non-expansion of NATO is based on. We are talking about the OSCE Istanbul document of 1999 and the OSCE Astana declaration of 2010:
«In 2010 in Astana, and before that in 1999 in Istanbul, all the presidents and prime ministers of the OSCE countries signed a package containing interrelated principles of ensuring the indivisibility of security. The West «tears out» only one slogan from this package: each country has the right to choose its allies and military alliances. But there this right is stipulated by the condition and obligation of each country, which the Westerners have signed up to: not to strengthen their security at the expense of the security of others.»
Sergey Lavrov also appreciated the written responses of the United States and NATO to Russian proposals on security guarantees: «I would like to emphasise that the answer we have received is now being studied. We have already outlined the first estimates. It cannot satisfy us at all concerning the main problem: the West does not fulfil its obligations on the indivisibility of security and ignores our interests, although they are very openly and clearly indicated.
In minor cases, they were shaken up by the fact that we presented such documents and did it publicly. This helped them to change their negative attitude to our previous proposals, including on medium-range and shorter-range missiles, to develop de-escalation measures during the studies.»
Of course, patriotic citizens of Russia are now concerned about the question “How will the country’s military-political leadership act in connection with the categorical refusal of the United States and NATO to take into account Russia’s interests on key points of the proposals on security guarantees?” Is it possible that Moscow’s determination to defend its interests in the field of national security will be limited only to diplomatic polemics and correspondence?
The Russian Foreign Minister dispelled doubts about this: «If they [the US and NATO] insist that they will not change their position, we will not change our position either. It’s just that their position is based on false arguments, on a direct distortion of facts. Our position is based on what everyone has signed up to. I don’t see any possibility of a compromise here. Otherwise, what is there to negotiate about if they openly sabotage and distort the old decisions. This will be a key test for us.»
Sergey Lavrov also said what «we will do if the West does not listen to the voice of reason»: «The President of Russia has already said this. If our attempts to agree on mutually acceptable principles for ensuring security in Europe fail, then we will take retaliatory measures.
Answering a direct question about what these measures could be, he said: they can be very different. He will make decisions based on the proposals that our military will present to him. Naturally, other departments will also participate in the preparation of these proposals. Now there is an interdepartmental study of the responses received from the United States and NATO members.»
Measures to protect Russia’s national interests in connection with the refusal of the United States and NATO on such fundamental issues as the prevention of NATO expansion, the refusal to deploy strike weapons systems near Russian borders, as well as the return of the military potential and infrastructure of the bloc in Europe to the position of 1997, will not take long to wait for.
As Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, put it: «Russia will not delay the reaction to the answers on security guarantees, but do not expect it at lightning speed.» Most likely, visible progress will not begin until the meeting of the leaders of Russia and China in Beijing on February 4, 2022 is over.
It should also be understood that in order for the US and NATO to respond effectively, Russia needs to know their weaknesses. There is such a Pareto principle: «20% of efforts give 80% of the result, and the remaining 80% of efforts are only 20% of the result.»
Given that NATO is the «USA plus», critical knowledge is the location of the sore point of the United States of America, or more precisely, the pain point of the American establishment. Figuratively speaking, it is necessary to know where the «death of the American Koschei» is located.
In this regard, it is worth taking a closer look at the briefing of the US State Department on January 27, 2022. Ned Price, the official representative of the US State Department, was asked the same question twice about the possible deployment of Russian troops in Cuba and Venezuela.
He somewhat nervously replied with the following: «Listen, we are not going to respond to empty threats. If we really see any movement in this direction, we will react quickly and decisively.»
As the United States declared, countries have the right to choose allies and military alliances. A logical question arises: if Cuba and Venezuela choose a military alliance with Russia or/and joining the CSTO, why is the United States going to «react quickly and decisively» in this case? The same right of choice is the principle that Washington defends in relation to Kiev, Vilnius, Riga, Tbilisi and so on. Or again double standards – «everything is for your own, but the law is for others?».
Everything is obvious. The American establishment still, as 200 years ago, thinks in terms of the Monroe doctrine, which forbade anyone to invade the American western hemisphere. The American elite is very comfortable sitting across the ocean, on the continental part of the United States in a sense of complete security and in the meantime inflate the war on the European continent, using the situation with Ukraine.
However, the Russian military presence in Latin America (on land, at sea or in the air) will deprive the American establishment of a sense of personal security and take away its peace and sleep.
Thus, the «death of the American Koschei» is located on the continental part of the United States. It is the Russian military threat to this territory, the possibility of an instant strike on it, on the centres of military and political control, that is the strongest lever of pressure on the American elite. And it is precisely this sore point that Russia’s military-technical response to the refusal of the United States and NATO to guarantee security for our country should be focused on.