Will the West land two strikes simultaneously — in Armenia and South Ossetia?

МОСКВА, 08 августа 2021, Институт РУССТРАТ.

The Western press has intensified its attention to the state of the Georgian armed forces. For example, the American magazine Forbes, in an article written by David Axe, analyses the results of the modernisation of the Georgian air defence system and comes to the conclusion that, although it is far from ideal, it is nevertheless able to “create a lot of problems” for the Russian Aerospace Forces “in the event of a repeat of the Russian-Georgian military conflict.”

The basis for such conclusions is the extensive program of American military assistance, which has both public and closed parts. Allegedly, the Georgian air defence forces decided on their own initiative to “help modernise” Israeli and French companies. And other assistance is received regularly.

For example, on February 10, 2021, at the location of the 4th mechanised brigade of the Georgian army at the base in Vaziani, a ceremony was held for the transfer of more than 300 Western-made trucks (IVECO, MAN and FORD brands) to the Georgian Defence Ministry.

And a day later, also with pomp, the Pentagon presented two battalion sets of infantry weapons as a gift, including 12.7 mm M2A1 machine guns, 40-mm Mk19 automatic machine-gun grenade launchers and M249 light machine guns. The celebrations were attended by Georgian Defence Minister Irakli Garibashvili and the commander of the country’s Defence Forces, Major General Giorgi Matiashvili.

In general, they say different things, but in the end they arrive at the same thing: despite the defeat of 2008, Georgia managed to restore the armed forces and bring them into line with NATO standards to a much greater extent than before. This is presented as a kind of indisputable quality mark, as if, of course, guaranteeing victory over any opponent in the region, including Russia.

The Georgian armed forces have 37,000 personnel. The ground forces consist of 5 infantry, 2 artillery and one aviation, engineering and anti-aircraft brigade each. In addition to them, there are five separate (2 light infantry, one communications, one electronic warfare and one medical) battalions, two companies of special operations forces, and three separate battalions of “special forces” of the police of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

Since May 2018, all of them have passed through the American training program GDRP (Georgia Defence Readiness Program), carried out with the participation and support of the US European Command and at the expense of American military assistance to Georgia.

The sources separately emphasise that the Georgian army has “extensive real combat experience” on the grounds that the expeditionary forces of the Georgian Armed Forces are actively involved in American military operations in other countries of the world. In particular, 11,000 Georgian military personnel passed through Afghanistan, and 2,300 Georgian soldiers and officers took part as instructors through the “Training and Equipping” training program of local military formations.

In general, the Georgian army is almost the strongest in the region and is able to ensure that the Georgian leadership conducts a completely independent international policy, first of all, independent of Russia. This usually means the growth of aggressive Russophobia.

No, what these “NATO standards” really are can be clearly seen in the examples of the battles of Ukrainian units in Donbass, the Afghan army against Islamist radicals and the effectiveness of the current army units of the armed forces of Iraq.

Moreover, the situation in Georgia is aggravated by the general local poverty, compared to which $550 of the minimum military salary looks like more than a serious salary. No, not for “protecting the Motherland”, but for such a specific job, where one needs to go in special overalls and obey some more formalised requirements of the leadership. But it is still perceived exclusively as a job. Peaceful. Because when it comes to the real war … see the story of August 2008.

Why then does the degree of “own pride” increase? It cannot be ruled out that some kind of provocation against Abkhazia and South Ossetia is being prepared in this way, probably synchronised in time with the strike of the “new Turkic army” on Armenia.

Faced with two crises at the same time, Moscow, according to the authors of the idea, will be forced to choose who to “save” in the first place. And most likely, its choice will fall on the Ossetians and Abkhazians, thereby creating a sufficient head start for the Turks for a “blitzkrieg” in Armenia.

The version, of course, is controversial, but it somehow fits too smoothly and without gaps, which began in the spring of 2021 in the Western press, the exaltation of the capabilities of the new Georgian army, revived and re-created already on the basis of the miraculous “NATO standards”. Moreover, it is important to note that Georgians themselves are beginning to believe in this mantra again, including the part of them that wants revenge for August 2008.

The West has always been distinguished by its ability to competently use local “useful idiots” for its own purposes. Will the Georgians understand that they are ready to be used again as cannon fodder?

Институт международных политических и экономических стратегий Русстрат

(@russtrat)