Do the Russians want a war or does Russia need a war with Ukraine?
МОСКВА, 23 декабря 2021, Институт РУССТРАТ.
Despite the recent direct talks on global security issues between Putin and Biden, where, among other things, the situation in Ukraine was discussed, many Western media outlets continue to spin hysteria that Russia allegedly plans to attack Ukraine in the near future. In particular, CNN «suddenly» leaked from the US presidential administration the four-week deadline that Biden set aside to prevent Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
At the same time, the fact is hushed up that it is Ukraine, contrary to the Minsk Agreements, that not only mobilises on the border with the L/DPR, which, in particular, is indicated by the monitoring of Ukrainian social networks, but also initiates the concentration of half of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and all barrage raids on the settlements of the L/DPR there.
The UAF occupied voids in the buffer zone and didn’t receive an adequate response from the L/DPR. The troops are lined up by Kiev in an attacking configuration, and no Western media is talking about it.
All Russian actions are an attempt to warn Ukraine of responsibility for any military adventures in Donbass. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said that unleashing a war and withdrawing from the Minsk process would be costly for Ukrainian statehood.
However, the Ukrainian authorities, under pressure from the decline in the approval rating of President Zelensky, as well as in accordance with the demands of their foreign curators, deliberately provoke a conflict. The incident with the Ukrainian «Donbass» navy ship in the Kerch Strait alone is worth something! There are many camps for training extremists in Ukraine, these camps operate with the help of the intelligence agencies of the United States and Europe.
Of course, in the event of an outbreak of hostilities in Donbass, Russia will be forced to come to the aid of the L/DPR both for humanitarian reasons and to protect Russian citizens, of whom there are hundreds of thousands. But is Russia interested in starting a war in Ukraine? Does it solve any of its strategic tasks in the field of security, economy, politics?
It is clear that economically, culturally and politically, Ukraine is already hostile to Russia, and therefore it is not needed. Everything that was previously produced within the framework of cooperation has been produced in Russia for a long time. At the same time, anti-Russian sentiments in Ukraine have already been formed by total propaganda. Security remains. There is the opinion that Russia allegedly needs the seizure of Ukraine in order to prevent a NATO invasion there.
But this is not the case. NATO is already in Ukraine — so far in the form of special forces, bases, instructors and weapons supplies. This, nevertheless, did not become a reason for a military clash between Russia and Ukraine. What could really provoke an armed response is the deployment of a NATO strike force in Ukraine.
And it does not matter if Ukraine joins NATO or if the relevant alliance bases are deployed there without registration of membership in it. We are talking, first of all, about NATO means of missile attack and deployment of missile defence systems. This is a «red line» for Russia. It’s possible to discuss this topic as much as is desired, but there is a need to clearly understand that we will not allow a repeat of June 22, 1941. No matter whose territory this threat comes from.
NATO speculates on the topic of the right of any state to join the alliance. However, wars do not start because of a right, but because of a threat to which the state cannot fail to respond — if it has the strength and means to do so. Let’s recall the Caribbean crisis of 1962 — at that time it was not about the right to deploy missiles, but about the real threat of a nuclear war because of their actual deployment.
A war with Ukraine is unprofitable for Russia. No matter how hostile it is at the moment, no matter how the nationalist regime rages there, Ukraine remains a buffer between Russia and NATO. This is beneficial for both Russia and Europe. But the US and the UK have different interests.
The United States is not in Europe, and with the threat of war in it, they keep Europe under control. The United States benefits from a war between Russia and Ukraine, because it is the most important means of maintaining its presence in European politics as a decisive player. It is the United States and the United Kingdom that are pushing NATO-affiliated Europe to the borders with Russia.
This makes it possible to weaken Europe and keep it dependent on Anglo-American foreign policy. Great Britain has a very conditional attitude to Europe, because throughout its history it has been engaged in kindling fires there in order to preserve its dominance.
The UK left the EU. It didn’t want to be there. Two world wars in Europe took place with the active instigation of London. Germany, France and Russia are the main opponents of Great Britain in Europe, therefore, Great Britain is vitally interested in the war between Russia and Ukraine where Germany and France will inevitably be involved.
We are witnessing a hybrid war of the West united in NATO against Russia in order to force Moscow to make a mistake, after which the United States and Great Britain will have a free hand. Germany and France will be forced to submit to the dictates of the United States, curtail their trade partnership with Russia, and curtail their plans to restore sovereignty within the EU. These are the goals that the United States and Great Britain are actually pursuing in Ukraine.
That is precisely why the United States and Great Britain are trying by any means to aggravate the conflict in Ukraine, to force Russia to intervene by force. They not only pump up the Ukrainian regime with weapons and instructors, create military bases, introduce contingents of their troops, but also create a continuous chain of pressure in the form of provocations.
NATO has become more active on the Russian border in an unprecedented way. While quantity has not turned into quality, Russia is watching. But, as Goering said, when too many guns accumulate, they start shooting themselves.
Now London and Washington are playing the role of a good and a bad policeman in relation to Russia. Allegedly, the United States is trying to negotiate with Russia, and the United Kingdom seems to be interfering, provoking incidents. After that, the United States is restoring the situation, and everyone is happy about it.
It is impossible to think that these are uncoordinated actions. Relations between the UK and the US, despite the existing internal contradictions, are under the control of Washington. If we see a recurring scenario, then it is clear that this is a consistent line of behaviour. After all, after every British provocation against Russia, whether in Europe or in Ukraine, the US’ position becomes tougher.
That is, the reason for this is given by the United Kingdom, and the United States seems to be forced to react to a change in the situation. In any bilateral negotiations, Biden can throw up his hands and tell Putin that this is the work of London, and Washington is supposedly only reacting. But since Putin has already taken retaliatory steps, the US position is changing. Of course, in the direction of toughening. It is important to note that if Moscow does not react in any way, the pressure will also increase. They will perceive it as a weakness and will squeeze.
So Russia is being pushed to compliance and concessions equivalent to surrender. They make it clear to us that if we don’t give up now, the pressure will continue. London provokes the incident, Moscow reacts, the United States reacts in response. Russia is dispersing its forces, and the «anaconda ring» is shrinking around it. The fact that Ukraine is expendable in this situation does not frighten anyone. After all, the political elites of Ukraine, as is said in Odessa, «do not live with profits, but with losses”. The more losses, the better their life.
So, objectively, Russia, like continental Europe, is not interested in unleashing a war in Ukraine. Such a war would be a disaster for Russia, Ukraine, and the whole of Europe. The question «who benefits» does not even need to be asked. The answer to it is clear, everything is clear without words.
For Russia, lean peace is better than a fat victory. And therefore the answer to the question «do the Russians want war» regarding the situation in Ukraine remains the same. They really don’t want it. But NATO should understand: they are playing with fire. Russia will not allow the appearance of the alliance’s strike infrastructure in Ukraine. This is the realisation of its right to security, and no one can deprive it of this right.
Elena Panina — director of the RUSSTRAT Institute
(@russtrat)
